No 4/2022, December | Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics

Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network Techniques for Forecasting Non-Stationary Agricultural Output Time Series

Olushina Olawale Awe Ronaldo Dias DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140401
No 4/2022, December
pp. 3 - 9

ABSTRACT

With the vast popularity of the deep learning models in the engineering and mathematical fields, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have recently attracted significant research applications in agriculture, economics, informatics and finance. In this paper, we use a deep learning method to capture and predict the unknown complex nonlinear characteristics of agricultural output based on autoregressive artificial neural network, using Nigeria as a case study. Using the proposed model, shocks in agricultural output is analyzed and modeled using data obtained for a period of forty years (1980-2019), and compared with analyses obtained from the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). This result is significant because it justifies the superiority of the hybrid ANN model over the traditional Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting non-stationary time series. The empirical results show that the proposed autoregressive ANN model achieves an improved forecasting accuracy over the traditional Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. It is further proposed that various types of artificial neural networks would be useful in forecasting and solving relevant tasks and problems widely defined in global agricultural production.

KEYWORDS

Artificial neural network, ARIMA, agricultural output, Nigeria, forecasting.

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Could Exist a Causality Between the Most Traded Commodities and Futures Commodity Prices in the Agricultural Market?

Michal Čermák Marie Ligocká DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140402
No 4/2022, December
pp. 11 - 25

ABSTRACT

Nowadays, many financial and academic practitioners explore the area of high-frequency forecasting in new dimensions. Research on agricultural commodities is an important issue for food policy and security. This paper is focused on the causality between the spot prices and futures prices of the main traded agricultural commodities. Thus, the Granger causality was used to identify the relationship between spot and futures prices of commodities. Our results show the Granger causality between cash prices and futures prices of wheat and cocoa. However, there is also causality in the opposite direction in the case of wheat. Causality could be related, among other things, to a specific market position of the commodity, food policy, historical aspects, the sensitivity of the market, speculation activity, tax policy, and particular interconnection of the market with the energy commodities market. In the price process of cash and futures wheat prices, inventories and storage play an important role.

KEYWORDS

Agricultural commodity, Granger causality, commodity futures, cash price, agricultural commodity interdependence, food policy.

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Milchbot: App to Support the Process of Feeding and Caring for Dairy Cows in Peru

Kevin Herrera Juan Miranda David Mauricio DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140403
No 4/2022, December
pp. 27 - 37

ABSTRACT

At present, Peru's agricultural sector has a shortfall of professionals, so livestock producers cannot be provided with relevant and reliable information to ensure good nutrition and care for dairy cows, which affects productivity. Milchbot is a chatbot that answers queries about the feeding and care of dairy cows based on reliable documentation. To do so, a chatbot model was designed to cover the topics of feeding, care, news and frequently asked questions for the planning, feeding and care processes about dairy cows. The model consists of a friendly interface, a dialog engine and a search engine that allows you to find and provide information from a document storage. This model was implemented employing Watson Assistant and Discovery. Milchbot was used and evaluated by 6 livestock producers and 7 zootechnicians. The results of the usability and satisfaction surveys show a high rating for both livestock producers and zootechnicians, and it should be noted that zootechnicians gave very high ratings on satisfaction.

KEYWORDS

Chatbot, dairy cows, agricultural sector, Watson

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Hub4Everybody - New Collaborative Environment for Sharing

Karel Charvát František Zadražil Otakar Čerba Jiří Kvapil Martin Tuchyňa Marcela Bindzárová Gergeľová Petr Uhlíř Šárka Horáková Markéta Kollerová Hana Kubíčková Irena Košková Akaninyene Obot Marek Šplíchal DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140404
No 4/2022, December
pp. 39 - 52

ABSTRACT

Hub4Everybody is a one-of-a-kind solution for publishing, sharing and cooperative management of geographical datasets, such as professional data and measuring, results of research projects or student papers, educational materials, emotional maps, visualization of in-field research and other maps, tables, or databases. You can easily upload or update your data as well as adjust the parameters of sharing among different audiences. Hub4Everybody is an alternative tool combining online office software with an editorial system for spatial data. It is also an Open-Source alternative to already existing commercial solutions, while offering additional extending options. Hub4Everybody offers all usual functions of geoportals (working with a map, linking of external data and services) but on top of that it offers a possibility to link desktop and mobile solutions for geographical data processing, data visualisation in form of storyboard and communication components via social networks. The solution is scalable and fully adaptable to the end-user needs. You can store your data directly on Hub4Everybody cloud or in your own infrastructure. All technologies used for Hub4Everybody are open source, which enables you to communicate with all kinds of users all over the world while no costs are necessary. The paper describes not only the current system, but also the history of development and potential utilization. An intensive testing and development using a series of INSPIRE Hackathons are an important part of development.

KEYWORDS

Digital innovation hubs, social space, regional development, web mapping, spatial information, hackathon.

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The Digital Economy in the Context of Digital Transformation and Their Impact on the Electronification of Accounting Processes in the Slovak Republic

Iveta Košovská Marcela Hallová Ivana Váryová Edita Šilerová Klára Hennyeyová Petr Cihelka DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140405
No 4/2022, December
pp. 53 - 65

ABSTRACT

As a result of the explosive growth of scientific knowledge and the rapid development of ICT, the world economy is undergoing crucial global changes, which are the most significant since the industrial revolution. Digitization represents the most important element of the fourth industrial revolution, enabling the connection of technology and people. The digital economy is related to the rapid onset and penetration of information and communication technologies into all areas of human activity, which also requires new perspectives on the factors affecting the development and success of the economy. We digitize information and data, digitize the processes and systems that make up the functioning of the company, and digitally transform the company and its strategy. The main task of article is to determine the digital economy in the context of digital transformation and their impact on the electronification of accounting processes in the Slovak Republic. The article defines the progress and level of development of Europe's digital competitiveness in individual EU member states using the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI). The position of Slovakia and the EU is compared for the period from 2018 to 2022. Slovakia needs to create conditions for the gradual digital transformation of all sectors of the economy. Digitization is also coming to the accounting. The article also describes how the approved amendment to the Act on Accounting as of January 1, 2022 creates space for streamlining the processing and archiving of accounting records. The current change in the amendment to the Act on Accounting thus offers completely new opportunities for working with corporate accounting in relation to internal processes in the company, but also in relation to financial administration or tax authorities. All entities, this also applies to agricultural entities keeping the double entry accounting, are obliged to follow the Act No. 431/2002 Coll. on Accounting as amended.

KEYWORDS

Digitization, digital economy, digital transformation, electronification of processes, accounting, agriculture, agricultural accounting entities.

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Effects of Land Quality on Land Use: Farm-level Panel-data Evidence from Viet Nam

Thanh Quang Ngo Khai Duc Luu Danh Ngọc Nguyen Thanh Xuan Bui Sang Nguyen Van Ky Tran Nguyen DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140406
No 4/2022, December
pp. 67 - 84

ABSTRACT

The sustainable livelihoods framework (SLF) is a comprehensive way to study agricultural issues. So far, to our best knowledge, no study has applied the SLF to examine the influence of land quality on land use intensively. The current research examines the effects of land quality on farmers’ decision-making on land use in Vietnam by modifying the sustainable livelihoods framework and using the fixed effects regression model. The method controlled the household and commune-level unobserved invariant characteristics and resulted in more robust estimates than pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation. The sample is a five-wave panel dataset of 2008-2016 with 1,534 farm households. The results reveal that land quality affects land-use choices through several aspects of land quality. More specifically, regarding topography, plot fertility level, plot locations, and soil and water conservation, results show that their effects reflect the cultivating practices for each land-use type in the sample. Findings also show that the irrigation system positively affects rice production in Vietnam. Policymakers should consider various aspects of land quality when designing policies and programs relating to land use, irrigation distribution, and especially the master plan for agricultural production and rural development. Flexible guidance for land uses of each type is closely connected with land quality in each region that may be most suitable for sustainable agriculture development.

KEYWORDS

Farming household, fixed-effects model, land quality, land use, panel data, Vietnam.

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Sustainability of Rubber Farmers Cooperatives: Empirical Evaluation of Determining Factors

Kajohnjak Nuanphromsakul Katarzyna Szczepańska-Woszczyna Sebastian Kot Singha Chaveesuk Wornchanok Chaiyasoonthorn DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140407
No 4/2022, December
pp. 85 - 96

ABSTRACT

The study investigated the factors that influence rubber farmers' cooperatives from the perspective of sustainability in Thailand. The research adopted a quantitative survey methodology with data purposively collected from 434 Thai rubber farmer groups. The variables included trust, sustainability, perceived value, satisfaction, loyalty, and brand image. The model was evaluated using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), while Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to assess the hypotheses. The results indicated that the sustainability of the rubber farmers' cooperatives as a corporate entity is influenced by brand image, loyalty, and satisfaction. Trust was also found to have a significant effect on the satisfaction and loyalty of the rubber farmers' cooperatives. The research recommended that to enhance the sustainability of the rubber farmers' cooperative's brand image, loyalty, and satisfaction should be improved. The research's drawback is that it only looked at the rubber farmer cooperatives of Thailand as a corporation, and therefore, these factors should be taken into account when applying these results outside of this scope.

KEYWORDS

Sustainability, rubber farmers, structural equation modeling, cooperatives, Thailand.

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Direct Payments Distribution Between Farmers in Selected New EU Member States

Adrian Sadłowski Rositsa Beluhova-Uzunova József Popp Dimo Atanasov Boryana Ivanova Mariyana Shishkova Krum Hristov DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140408
No 4/2022, December
pp. 97 - 107

ABSTRACT

The study aims to identify the degree of direct payments concentration in selected Central and Eastern European Member States (compared to the entire EU) and outline the perspectives and recommendations for the next programming period. The spatial scope of the study includes Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria. The time scope covers the period 2009–2019. The survey indicates that the payments distribution in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and to a lesser extent also in Poland, is highly unbalanced. The analysed countries used the redistribution instruments, optional for the Member States, which were introduced by the 2013 CAP reform, to a moderate extent, in order to ensure a more even funds distribution between the beneficiaries. It cannot be ruled out that instruments ensuring a more even funds distribution would be politically easier to introduce at the EU level than at the national level. Nevertheless, also in the next financial perspective, in line with the subsidiarity principle, this issue is left to the Member States.

KEYWORDS

Capping, Common Agricultural Policy, concentration of support, income inequalities, redistributive payment, single area payment.

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The Impact of ICT on Rural Livelihood of Farmers in West Bengal, India

Kalyan Sarkar Sujit Deb Sujoy Hazari DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140409
No 4/2022, December
pp. 109 - 119

ABSTRACT

Agriculture is a major contributor to West Bengal's economy, as the state's manufacturing sector is constrained by topographical constraints. As a result of the foregoing background, this study aims to investigate the effect of ICT on farmers' livelihoods in West Bengal.Primary data collection is done from the rural farmers in West Bengal, based on a pre-defined questionnaire.Data analysis is done via Cronbach’s Alpha, factor analysis linear regression. Taking into consideration of 95% confidence level and 5% confidence interval, total sample size of 381 have been determined. All the five dimensions of livelihood -Financial Capital (FC), Human Capital (HC), Physical Capital (PC), Social Capital (SC) and Natural Capital (NC), have been considered in the present study.Based on the analysis it is found that ICT has a positive impact on all the five tenets of livelihood in the district of PurbaMedinipur, West Bengal.

KEYWORDS

Farmer, livelihood, ICTs, factor analysis and impact.

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Optimal Farm Planning and Assessment of Conventional Agricultural Practices under Alternative Scenarios Integrating Life Cycle Analysis

Emmanouil Tziolas Konstantina Ofridopoulou Thomas Bournaris Basil Manos DOI: 10.7160/aol.2022.140410
No 4/2022, December
pp. 121 - 135

ABSTRACT

Agricultural production and farm management are inextricable, since managerial aspects for safe and of high-quality food products have led to the development of successful production plans but multifaceted controversies as well. These controversies arise from the focus of policymakers, especially in the EU, to the environmental aspects of agricultural production, creating conflicting objectives for farmers. Energy from biomass derivatives could play a significant role in the dispute for economic and environmental sustainability in agriculture, along with the formulation of agro-energy districts. In this context, an MCDM model was developed integrating LCA data for the assessment of economic, environmental and energy sustainability regarding thirteen major crops in the Region of Central Macedonia in Greece. The model's objectives consist of maximization of farmers' gross income, minimization of emissions coming from farming practices and maximization of energy potentially coming from biomass. Furthermore, three different scenario-based directions allocate different weights to the respective objectives, creating different managerial strategies. The optimal production plan was the scenario in which the weights were allocated by goal programming. The optimal plan proposes the cultivation expansion of energy crops, tree crops, alfalfa and hard wheat to a higher degree. Moreover, a significant reduction to the cultivated areas of tobacco, rice, barley and soft wheat could lead to a potentially viable production plan.

KEYWORDS

Farm management, multi-criteria analysis, life cycle assessment, mathematical programming.

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