Time Series Models: Development Trends of Foodstuffs Consumption in CR Considering Healthy Eating

Jana KöppelováLibuše Svatošová

DOI 10.7160/aol.2019.110205
No 2/2019, June
pp. 43-53

Köppelová, J. and Svatošová, L. (2019) “Time Series Models: Development Trends of Foodstuffs Consumption in CR Considering Healthy Eating", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 43-53. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2019.110205.

Abstract

The agrarian sector can be understood in several ways, according to the integration of the agrarian sector into national economic structures. Understanding the agrarian sector in its complex relation to the sectors that represent the final consumption of already processed agricultural products - food (not agricultural raw materials) represents agribusiness. Among other issues, food consumption is affected by the newest nutrition trends and opinions on healthy eating and food safety. The paper´s aim is an indication of development tendencies in the consumption of some selected food types and subsequent construction of a short-term forecast, considering food quality and healthy eating. Some of the prognostic procedures based on time series extrapolation have been applied in this paper. Time series analysis is therefore the starting basis for assessment of the selected foodstuffs consumption developmental tendencies and a subsequent short-term forecasts construction.The results demonstrate unambiguously that, the time series analysis methods can be applied with success in finding development tendencies of the food consumption indicators studied. Application of the adaptive models in particular, can bring good quality outcomes in this field. Anyway, it is not possible to reach an unambiguous conclusion concerning the assessment whether the consumption of some selected food types is in line with nutritional recommendations. In some cases it is, in some it is not.

Keywords

Extrapolation, time series models, forecast, agribusiness, food consumption in the CR, healthy eating, nutrition recommendations.

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