Time Series Models: Development Trends of Foodstuffs Consumption in CR Considering Healthy Eating
No 2/2019, June
Köppelová, J. and Svatošová, L. (2019) “Time Series Models: Development Trends of Foodstuffs Consumption in CR Considering Healthy Eating", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 43-53. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2019.110205.
The agrarian sector can be understood in several ways, according to the integration of the agrarian sector into national economic structures. Understanding the agrarian sector in its complex relation to the sectors that represent the final consumption of already processed agricultural products - food (not agricultural raw materials) represents agribusiness. Among other issues, food consumption is affected by the newest nutrition trends and opinions on healthy eating and food safety. The paper´s aim is an indication of development tendencies in the consumption of some selected food types and subsequent construction of a short-term forecast, considering food quality and healthy eating. Some of the prognostic procedures based on time series extrapolation have been applied in this paper. Time series analysis is therefore the starting basis for assessment of the selected foodstuffs consumption developmental tendencies and a subsequent short-term forecasts construction.The results demonstrate unambiguously that, the time series analysis methods can be applied with success in finding development tendencies of the food consumption indicators studied. Application of the adaptive models in particular, can bring good quality outcomes in this field. Anyway, it is not possible to reach an unambiguous conclusion concerning the assessment whether the consumption of some selected food types is in line with nutritional recommendations. In some cases it is, in some it is not.
Extrapolation, time series models, forecast, agribusiness, food consumption in the CR, healthy eating, nutrition recommendations.
- Arlt, J. and Arltová, M. (2009) "Ekonomické časové řady" (Economic time series), Prague, Professional Publishing. ISBN 978-80-86946-85-6. (In Czech).
- Bowman, S. A., Gortmaker, S. L., Ebbeling, C. B., Pereira, M. A. and Ludwig, D. S. (2004) "Effects of fast-food consumption on energy intake and diet quality among children in a national household survey", Pediatrics, Vol. 113, No. 1., pp. 112-118. ISSN 0022-3476. DOI 10.1542/peds.113.1.112.
- Dozorova, T. A. and Utmanova, N. A. (2015) "Еconometric methods in forecasting food consumption", In Global Science and Innovation: materials of the VI International Scientific Conference, Vol. 1, Chicago, November 18-19th (Vol. 2015).
- Drewnowski, A. and Darmon, N. (2005) "Food choices and diet costs: an economic analysis", The Journal of Nutrition, Vol. 135, No. 4, pp. 900-904. E-ISSN 1541-6100, ISSN 0022-3166. DOI 10.1093/jn/135.4.900.
- Ganqiong, L., Shiwei, X., Zhemin, L. and Xiao-xia, D. O. N. G. (2010) "Study on Super Short-term Forecasting for Market Price of Agro-products - Based on Modern Times Series Modeling of Daily Wholesale Price of Tomatoes", Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University (Social Sciences Edition), Vol. 6. ISSN 1008-3456.
- Hindls, R., Hronová, S. and Novák, I. (2000) "Metody statistické analýzy pro ekonomy" (Methods of statistical analysis for ecnomists), Prague. ISBN 80-7261-013-9. (In Czech).
- Hulshof, K. F. A. M., Brussaard, J. H., Kruizinga, A. G., Telman, J. and Löwik, M. R. H., (2003) "Socio-economic status, dietary intake and 10 y trends: the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey", European Journal Of Clinical Nutrition, Vol. 57, No. 1. E-ISSN 1476-5640, ISSN 0954-3007. DOI 10.1038/sj.ejcn.1601503.
- Kalekar, P. S. (2004) "Time series forecasting using holt-winters exponential smoothing", Kanwal Rekhi School of Information Technology, pp. 1-13.
- Kearney, J. (2010) "Food consumption trends and drivers", Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 365, No. 1554, pp. 2793-2807. DOI 10.1098/rstb.2010.0149.
- Kába, B. (1997) "Konstrukce kombinovaných předpovědí časových řad ekonomických ukazatelů", Constructions of combined forecasts of time series of economic indicators), Zborník vedeckých prác z MVD, Nitra (In Czech).
- Mahmoud, E. and Pegels, C. C. (1990) "An approach for selecting times series forecasting models", International Journal of Operations & Production Management, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 50-60. ISSN 0144-3577. DOI 10.1108/01443579010003003.
- McCrory, M. A., Fuss, P. J., Hays, N. P., Vinken, A. G., Greenberg, A. S. and Roberts, S. B. (1999) "Overeating in America: association between restaurant food consumption and body fatness in healthy adult men and women ages 19 to 80, Obesity Research, Vol. 7, No. 6, pp. 564-571. ISSN 1071-7323.
- Náglová, Z. and Horáková, T. (2016) "Influence of Qualitative Factors on Quantitative Determinants in the Czech Meat Industry Economy“, AGRIS On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 8, No. 4, pp. 111-123. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2016.080410.
- Olsen, S. O. and Tuu, H. H. (2017) "Time perspectives and convenience food consumption among teenagers in Vietnam: The dual role of hedonic and healthy eating values“, Food Research International, Vol. 99, Part 1, pp. 98-105. ISSN 0963-9969. DOI 10.1016/j.foodres.2017.05.008.
- Procházková, R., Prášilová, M. and Hloušková, Z. (2016) "Efficiency of agriculture as related to foodstuffs Autarky in the Czech Republic“, Proceedings of International conference Agrarian Perspectives XXV, Prague, pp. 284 - 290. ISBN 978-80-213-2670-5.
- Smutka, L., Steininger, M. and Miffek, O. (2009) "World agricultural production and consumption“, AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 3-12. ISSN 1804-1930.
- Společnost pro výživu [Online]. Available: http://www.vyzivaspol.cz/vyzivova-doporuceni-pro-obyvatelstvo-ceske-republiky. [Accessed: 12 April 2018] (In Czech).
- Svatošová, L. and Köppelová, J. (2017) "The Use of Combined Models in the Construction of Foodstuffs Consumption Forecasting in the Czech Republic", AGRIS On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 9, No. 4., pp. 81-89. ISSN 1804-1930.
- Šrádl, K. and Mikhalkina, E. (2014) "Competition among Companies in the Fast Food Market in the Czech Republic", AGRIS On-Line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 6, No. 4. ISSN 1804-1930.