Assessing and Forecasting the Competitiveness of Indonesian Downstream Coffee Industry

Mochammad YusufArif Imam SurosoUjang SumarwanSuhendiAdi Haryono

DOI 10.7160/aol.2026.180110
No 1/2026, March
pp. 133-148

Yusuf, M., Suroso, A. I., Sumarwan, U., Suhendi. and Haryono, A. (2026) "Assessing and Forecasting the Competitiveness of Indonesian Downstream Coffee Industry", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 133-148. ISSN 1804-1930 DOI 10.7160/aol.2026.180110.

Abstract

This study aims to identify the factors influencing the competitiveness of the Indonesian downstream coffee industry and provide a forecast through 2030. This study uses Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, based on the Porter Diamond model, to identify the position and determinants of competitiveness in Indonesia’s downstream coffee industry. In developing the forecasting model, this study employs three approaches: ARIMA, HP-Filter, and ARDL forecasting, utilising data from 1990 to 2023. The study indicates that Indonesia's downstream coffee industry has comparative advantages, as reflected in the continuous increase of RSCA values over the past two decades. The Porter Diamond model shows that GDP, manufacturing value-added, and foreign direct investment are key drivers of competitiveness. Coffee prices negatively affect both the short and long term, while domestic consumption negatively affects competitiveness only in the short term. Land area, however, does not show a significant effect. The forecasting results show that the competitiveness of the downstream coffee industry in Indonesia is projected to experience continued growth from 2024 to 2030.

Keywords

Business analytics, coffee industry, competitiveness, downstream, Porter Diamond Model

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