Economic Analysis of Grain Product Metrics

Valentin UteulinGulnar LukhmanovaOlessya LemechshenkoKulzhamal BleutayevaBaglan Murzabekova

DOI 10.7160/aol.2025.170208
No 2/2025, June
pp. 109-123

Analysis of Grain Product Metrics", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 109-123. ISSN 1804-1930 DOI 10.7160/aol.2025.170208.

Abstract

The study aims to analyse the key factors affecting grain production in Kazakhstan to develop recommendations for improving the efficiency and sustainability of the agricultural sector. Statistical methods and econometric modelling techniques were used, including the least squares method with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation robust errors and autoregression with external factors for time series analysis. These methods were used to estimate the impact of various internal and external factors on the gross grain harvest. The analysis demonstrated that grain yields depend on a variety of factors, such as innovations in agricultural technology, climatic conditions and economic policy. The identified factors were grouped with measurable indicators for each, which became the basis for building models. The study determined that the autoregressive model is more suitable for describing the impact on the dependent variable – grain harvest. The most influential indicators are yields and research and development costs. The results of the study can be used to adjust agricultural policy and strategies for agricultural development in Kazakhstan. Proposals for optimising land use and integrating modern agricultural technologies will increase productivity and reduce the impact of negative factors.

Keywords

Yield, sown area, gross harvest, fertiliser, multiple regression model, food security

References

  1. Baidybekova, S. K., Sauranbay, S. B. and Yermekbayeva, D. D. (2022) "Agricultural sector of the economy as the basis of the country’s food security", Bulletin of "Turan" University, Vol. 4, No. 96, pp. 11-25. E-ISSN 2959-1236, ISSN 1562-2959 DOI 10.46914/1562-2959-2022-1-4-11-25.
  2. Barrett, T., Feola, G., Khusnitdinova, M. and Krylova, V. (2017) "Adapting agricultural water use to climate change in a post-Soviet context: Challenges and opportunities in Southeast Kazakhstan", Human Ecology, Vol. 45, No. 6, pp. 747-762. E-ISSN 1572-9915, ISSN 0300-7839 DOI 10.1007/s10745-017-9947-9.
  3. Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2024a) "Statistics of agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishery sectors". [Online]. Available: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/business-statistics/stat-forrest-village-hunt-fish/ [Accessed: Aug. 15, 2024]. (In Ruusian)
  4. Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2024b) "Environmental indicators for environmental monitoring and assessment". [Online]. Available: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/ecologic-indicators/ [Accessed: Aug. 15, 2024]. (In Ruusian)
  5. Gaba, S., Cheviron, N., Perrot, T., Piutti, S., Gautier, J. L. and Bretagnolle, V. (2020) "Weeds enhance multifunctionality in arable lands in south-west of France", Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Vol. 4, No. 71. ISSN 2571-581X. DOI 10.3389/fsufs.2020.00071
  6. Jia, M. and Zhen, L. (2021) "Analysis of food production and consumption based on the Emergy method in Kazakhstan", Foods, Vol. 10, No. 7, p.1520. ISSN 2304-8158 DOI 10.3390/foods10071520.
  7. Jumabayev, S., Dulambayeva, R., Kussainova, L. and Yesmagambetov, D. (2023) "Approaches to assessing the food security of the regions of Kazakhstan in modern conditions", Public Policy and Administration, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 503-518. ISSN 2640-2688 DOI 10.13165/VPA-23-22-4-09.
  8. Kalenska, S. (2022) "Food security and innovative solutions in crop production", Plant and Soil Science, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 14-26. E-ISSN 2706-7696, ISSN 2706-7688 DOI 10.31548/agr.13(2).2022.14-26.
  9. Karatayev, M., Clarke, M., Salnikov, V., Bekseitova, R. and Nizamova, M. (2022) "Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: The case study of Kazakhstan", Heliyon, Vol. 8, No. 1, p. e08660. E-ISSN 2405-8440 DOI 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08660.
  10. Lukhmanova, G., Baisholanova, K., Shiganbayeva, N., Abenov, B., Sambetbayeva, A. and Gussenov, B. S. (2019a) "Innovative development of the agricultural sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan", Espacios, Vol. 40, No. 32, pp. 178-181. ISSN 0798-1015. [Online]. Available: https://www.revistaespacios.com/a19v40n32/a19v40n32p06.pdf [Accessed: July 20, 2024]
  11. Lukhmanova, G., Sartanova, N., Mezhov, S., Mishchenko, I., Mishchenko, I. and Bedelbayeva, A. (2019b) "Integration interaction of the EAEU countries as a factor to improve competitiveness in the agribusiness", Journal of Advanced Research in Law and Economics, Vol. 10, No. 6, pp. 1801-1806. ISSN. 2068-696X. [Online]. Available: https://journals.aserspublishing.eu/jarle/article/view/4954 [Accessed: July 20, 2024]
  12. Marmul, L., Levaieva, L. and Runcheva, N. (2020) "Investment in environmentalization and comprehensive programs for development of the grain industry", University Economic Bulletin, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp. 31-37. E-ISSN 2414-3774, ISSN 2306-546X DOI 10.31470/2306-546X-2020-46-31-37.
  13. Mistry, M. N. and Wing, I. S. (2017) "Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change", Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, No. 7, p. 075007. ISSN 1748-9326 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c.
  14. Namazova, A. S. and Wei, F. (2020) "Grain production overview of research in Kazakhstan", Capital of Science, Vol. 6, No. 23, pp. 119-128. E-ISSN 2658-6177. (In Russian)
  15. Orazov, A., Nadtochii, L., Bozymov, K., Muradova, M. and Zhumayeva, A. (2021) "Role of camel husbandry in food security of the Republic of Kazakhstan", Agriculture, Vol. 11, No. 7, p. 614. ISSN 2077-0472 DOI 10.3390/agriculture11070614.
  16. Peltoniemi, K., Velmala, S., Fritze, H., Lemola, R. and Pennanen, T. (2021) "Long-term impacts of organic and conventional farming on the soil microbiome in boreal arable soil", European Journal of Soil Biology, Vol. 104, p. 103314. ISSN 1164-5563 DOI 10.1016/j.ejsobi.2021.103314.
  17. Razakova, D. (2013) "Current trends and outlooks of the development of the Kazakhstan grain market", World Applied Sciences Journal, Vol. 25, No. 6, pp. 875-881. E-ISSN 1991-6426, ISSN 1818-4952 DOI 10.5829/idosi.wasj.2013.25.06.13357.
  18. Serhiienko, O., Tatar, M., Guryanova, L., Shapran, O. and Bril, M. (2023) "Improvement of Financial Instruments of the Agricultural Sector and Food Security Efficiency Increasing", Economic Studies (Ikonomicheski Izsledvania), Vol. 32, No. 5, pp. 115-142. ISSN 0205-3292
  19. Tokenova, S., Kadrinov, M. and Alpyssova, V. (2019) "Progress of grain production developmentin Kazakhstan and Mongolia", IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Vol. 341, No. 1, p. 012207. ISSN 2577-0640 DOI 10.1088/1755-1315/341/1/01220.
  20. Wang, Y., Huang, P., Khan, Z.A. and Wei, F. (2021a). "Potential of Kazakhstan’s grain export trade", Ciência Rural, Vol. 52, No. 1, p. e20210199. ISSN 1678-4596 DOI 10.1590/0103-8478cr20210199.
  21. Wang, Z., Zhang, T., Tan, C., Xue, L., Bukovsky, M. and Qi, Z. (2021b) "Modeling impacts of climate change on crop yield and phosphorus loss in a subsurface drained field of Lake Erie region, Canada", Agricultural Systems, Vol. 190, p. 103110. ISSN 0308-521X DOI 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103110.
  22. Yuksel, K., Nursoy, M. and Zhumaxanova, K.M. (2023) "Assessment of the agro-industrial complex efficiency in the country’s economy", Bulletin of "Turan" University, Vol. 97, No. 1, pp. 196-211. ISSN 1562-2959 DOI 10.46914/1562-2959-2023-1-1-196-211.
  23. Zhanaltay, Z. (2023) "Agricultural development of Kazakhstan", Eurasian Research Journal, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 45-58. ISSN 2519-2442 DOI 10.53277/2519-2442-2023.4-03.
  24. Zhenskhan, D., Pyagay, A., Bespayeva, R., Kadrinov, M., Omarkhanova, Z. and Tatikova, A. (2022) "The current state of food security in Kazakhstan, in the context of Eurasian economic union. Environmentally overview in the case of climate change’s scenarios", Journal of Environmental Management & Tourism, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 1300-1310. E-ISSN 2068-7729 DOI 10.14505/jemt.v13.5(61).08.
  25. Zhupankhan, A., Tussupova, K. and Berndtsson, R. (2018) "Water in Kazakhstan, a key in Central Asian water management", Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 63, No. 5, pp. 752-762. ISSN 2150-3435 DOI 10.1080/02626667.2018.1447111.

Full paper

  Full paper (.pdf, 1.01 MB).