Climate Change and Sustainability in Czech Wheat Production

DOI 10.7160/aol.2021.130402
No 4/2021, December
pp. 9-18

Hálová, P., Mach, J., Čechura, L. and Slaboch, J. (2021) “Climate Change and Sustainability in Czech Wheat Production", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 9-18. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2021.130402.


The paper deals with the analysis of Czech wheat production and its determinants. We use the Just and Pope (1979) stochastic production function to estimate the effects of economic and weather variables, together with technological progress and climate change, on wheat yield in the Czech regions in the period 1961–2018. The results suggest that both economic and environmental factors play important roles in the wheat yield function. The output/input price ratio has a positive effect on the wheat yield. The effects of temperature and precipitation are month-specific and highly non-linear. Technological change also has a positive effect on yield, whereas climate change has a rather negative effect on wheat yield.


Cereals, production, yield, weather, precipitation, economic loss.


  1. Alexandratos, N. and Bruinsma, J. (2012) "World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision", ESA Working paper, No. 12-03. Rome, FAO. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 25 Aug, 2021].
  2. Amthor, J. S. (2001) "Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration", Field Crops Research, Vol. 73, No. 1, pp. 1-34. ISSN 0378-4290. DOI 10.1016/S0378-4290(01)00179-4.
  3. Beddington, J. R., Asaduzzaman, M., Clark, M. E., Bremauntz A. F., Guillou, M. D., Jahn, M. M., Erda, L., Mamo, T., Negra, Ch., Nobre, C. A., Scholes, R. J. L., Sharma, R., Van Bo, N. and Wakhungu, J. (2012) "The role for scientists in tackling food insecurity and climate change", Agriculture & Food Security, Vol. 1, No. 10. ISSN 2048-7010. DOI 10.1186/2048-7010-1-10.
  4. Čechura, L., Kroupová, Z. and Rudinskaya, T. (2015) "Factors determining TFP changes in Czech agriculture", Agricultural Economics, Vol. 61, No. 12, pp. 543-551, ISSN 0139-570X. DOI 10.17221/14/2015-AGRICECON.
  5. Čechura, L., Hálová, P. and Mach, J. (2020) "Technological progress, weather effects and sustainability in Czech cereal production", 29th International Scientific Conference Agrarian Perspectives XXIX. - Trends and Challenges of Agrarian Sector, pp. 83-89. ISSN 2464-478.
  6. Challinor, A. J., Parkes, B. and Ramirez-Villegas, J. (2015) "Crop yield response to climate change varies with cropping intensity", Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, No. 4, pp. 1679-1688. ISSN 1365-2486. DOI 10.1111/gcb.12808.
  7. Chen, C., Baethgen, W. E. and Robertson, A. (2013) "Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003", Climatic Change, Vol. 116, pp. 767-788. E-ISSN 1573-1480, ISSN 0165-0009. DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0509-2.
  8. De Wit, A. J. W., Boogaard, H. L. and van Diepen, C. A. (2005) "Spatial resolution of precipitation and radiation: The effect on regional crop yield forecasts", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 135, No. 1-4, pp. 156-168. ISSN 0168-1923. DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.11.012.
  9. Füssel, H.-M. (2007) "Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons", Sustainability Science, Vol. 2, pp 265-275. E-ISSN 1862-4057, ISSN 1862-4065. DOI 10.1007/s11625-007-0032-y.
  10. Hálová, P., Žáková Kroupová, Z., Havlíková, M., Čechura, L. and Malý, M. (2015) "Provision of Public Goods in Czech Agriculture", Proceedings of the 24th International Scientific Conference on Agrarian Perspectives - Global Agribusiness and the Rural Economy, Prague, pp. 145-158. ISBN 978-80-213-2581-4.
  11. Hendricks, N. P., Smith, A. and Sumner, D. A. (2014) "Crop supply dynamics and the illusion of partial adjustment", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 96, No. 5, pp. 1469-1491. E-ISSN 1467-8276, ISSN 0002-9092. DOI 10.1093/ajae/aau024.
  12. Hoffman, A. L., Kemanian, A. R. and Forest, Ch. E. (2018) "Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa", Global Change Biology, Vol. 24, pp. 143-157. ISSN 1365-2486. DOI 10.1111/gcb.13901.
  13. Just, R. and Pope, R. (1979) "Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 61, No. 2, pp. 276-284. E-ISSN 1467-8276. DOI 10.2307/1239732.
  14. Khanal, U., Wilson, C., Hoang, V. and Lee, B. (2018) "Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change, Its Determinants and Impacts on Rice Yield in Nepal", Ecological Economics, Vol. 144, pp. 139-147. ISSN 0921-8009. DOI 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.08.006.
  15. King, M., Altdorff, D., Li, P., Galagedara, L., Holden, J. and Unc, A. (2018) “Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change”, Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, No. 1. E-ISSN ISSN 2045-2322. DOI 10.1038/s41598-018-26321-8.
  16. Knox, J., Hess, T., Daccache, A. and Wheeler, T. (2012) "Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia", Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 7, No. 3. ISSN 1748-9326. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034032.
  17. Lobell, D. B. and Burke, M. B. (2010) "On the use of statistical models to predict crop yield responses to climate change", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 150, No. 11, pp. 1443-1452. ISSN 0168-1923. DOI 10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.07.008.
  18. Lobell, D. B., Cahill, K. N. and Field, C. B. (2007) "Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields", Climatic Change, Vol. 81, pp. 187-203. E-ISSN 1573-1480, ISSN 0165-0009. DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9141-3.
  19. Miao, R., Khanna, M. and Huang, H. (2016) "Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 98, pp. 191-211. E-ISSN 1467-8276. DOI 10.1093/ajae/aav025.
  20. Morel, J., Kumar, U., Ahmed, M., Bergkvist, G., Lana, M., Halling, M. and Parsons, D. (2021) “Quantification of the Impact of Temperature, CO2, and Rainfall Changes on Swedish Annual Crops Production Using the APSIM Model”, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, Vol. 5, Art. No. 665025, 11 p. ISSN 2571-581X. DOI 10.3389/fsufs.2021.665025.
  21. Pesaran, M. H. (2015) "Time series and panel data econometrics", Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198736912. DOI 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198736912.001.0001.
  22. Qiao, J., Yu, D. and Wu, J. (2018) "How do climatic and management factors affect agricultural ecosystem services? A case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of northern China", Science of The Total Environment, pp. 314-323. ISSN 0048-9697. DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.264.
  23. Robertson, A. W., Ines, A.V. M. and Hansen, J. W. (2007) "Downscaling of Seasonal Precipitation for Crop Simulation", Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 46, pp. 677-693. E-ISSN 1558-8432, ISSN 1558-8424. DOI 10.1175/JAM2495.1.
  24. Weersink, A., Cabas, J. H. and Olale, E. (2010) "Acreage Response to Weather, Yield, and Price", Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 57-72. E-ISSN 1744-7976, ISSN 0008-3976. DOI 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01173.x.
  25. Wilcox, J. and Makowski, D. (2014) "A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yields using simulation studies", Field Crops Research, Vol. 156, pp. 180-190. ISSN 0378-4290. DOI 10.1016/j.fcr.2013.11.008.

Full paper

  Full paper (.pdf, 550.2 KB).