Effects of Natural Disaster on Rice Production at Farm Level: New Evidence from Vietnam

DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100104
No 1/2018, March
pp. 37-49

Nguyen, H.-R., Ngo, Q.-T. and Nguyen, N.-D. (2018) “Effects of Natural Disaster on Rice Production at Farm Level: New Evidence from Vietnam", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 37-49. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100104.


The current study uses a unique balanced panel of 3,922 households between 2008 and 2010 to examine the extent to which rice production in Vietnam is affected by natural disasters and how coping strategies lessen the negative effects of natural disaster, using a fixed effects model that controls for time invariant farm heterogeneity. With regard to natural disaster, we find evidence of the negative inter-temporal occurrence and negative inter-temporal severity effects, and the negative current occurrence one as well. With regard to coping strategies, we find various evidence of current, inter-temporal coping-occurrence and coping-severity effects, depending on kinds of coping strategies.


Current and inter-temporal occurrence effects, current and inter-temporal severity effects, current and intertemporal coping-occurrence effects, current and inter-temporal coping-severity effects, natural disaster, rice production, Vietnam.


  1. Alderman, H., Hoddinott, J. and Kinsey, B. (2006) “Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition”, Oxford economic papers, Vol. 58, No. 3, pp. 450-474. E-line ISSN 1464-3812, ISSN 0030-7653. DOI 10.1093/oep/gpl008.
  2. Benson, C. (1997) “The economic impact of natural disasters in Viet Nam”, Overseas DevelopmentInstitute London. ISBN 0 85003 252 0.
  3. Blaikie, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. and Wisner, B. (2014) “At risk: natural hazards, people'svulnerability and disasters”, Routledge. ISBN-13 978-0415252164, ISBN-10 0415252164.
  4. Briguglio, L., Cordina, G., Farrugia, N. and Vella, S. (2009) “Economic vulnerabilityand resilience: concepts and measurements”, Oxford development studies, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 229-247. DOI 10.1080/13600810903089893.
  5. Bruneau, M., Chang, S. E., Eguchi, R. T., Lee, G. C., O’Rourke, T. D., Reinhorn, A. M., Shinozuka,M., Tierney, K., Wallace, W. A. and von Winterfeldt, D. (2003) “A framework to quantitativelyassess and enhance the seismic resilience of communities”, Earthquake spectra, Vol. 19, No. 4,pp. 733-752. ISSN 8755-2930. DOI 10.1193/1.1623497.
  6. Das, H., Adamenko, T., Anaman, K., Gommes, R. and Johnson, G. (2003) “Agrometeorologyrelated to extreme events”, WMO. [Online]. Available: https://library.wmo.int/opac/doc_num.php?explnum_id=3442 [Accessed: 10 Dec. 2017].
  7. Davies, M., Béné, C., Arnall, A., Tanner, T., Newsham, A. and Coirolo, C. (2013) “Promotingresilient livelihoods through adaptive social protection: Lessons from 124 programmesin South Asia”, Development Policy Review, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 27-58. E-ISSN 1467-7679. DOI 10.1111/j.1467-7679.2013.00600.x.
  8. De Haen, H. and Hemrich, G. (2007) “The economics of natural disasters: implicationsand challenges for food security”, Agricultural Economics, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 31-45.E-ISSN 1574-0862. DOI 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2007.00233.x.
  9. Deaton, A. (1992) “Household saving in LDCs: Credit markets, insurance and welfare”,The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 94, No. 2, pp. 253-257. E-ISSN 1467-9442.
  10. Deaton, A. (1997) “The analysis of household surveys: a microeconometric approach to developmentpolicy”, World Bank Publications, Vol. 1, 490 p. [Online]. Available: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/593871468777303124/The-analysis-of-household-surveys-a-microeconometricapproach-to-development-policy [Accessed: 15 Dec. 2017].
  11. Fafchamps, M. (2009) “Vulnerability, risk management, and agricultural development”, Centerof Evaluation for Global Action. [Online]. Available: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9752m723[Accessed: 8 Jan. 2018].
  12. Fothergill, A. and Peek, L. A. (2004) “Poverty and disasters in the United States: A reviewof recent sociological findings”, Natural hazards, Vol. 32, No. 1, pp. 89-110. E-ISSN 1573-0840,ISSN 0921-030X. DOI 10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000026792.76181.d9.
  13. Greiving, S., Fleischhauer, M. and Lückenkötter, J. (2006) “A methodology for an integrated riskassessment of spatially relevant hazards”, Journal of environmental planning and management,Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 1-19. DOI 10.1080/09640560500372800.
  14. IFRC/RCS (2003) “World Disasters Report: 2002”, Geneva, Switzerland: International Federationof Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. [Online]. Available: http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Publications/disasters/WDR/32600-WDR2002.pdf [Accessed: 10 Dec. 2017].
  15. Israel, D. C., and Briones, R. M. (2012) “Impacts of natural disasters on agriculture, food security,and natural resources and environment in the Philippines”, PIDS discussion paper series (No. 2012-36).
  16. Jacoby, H. G. and Skoufias, E. (1997) “Risk, financial markets, and human capital in a developingcountry”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 311-335. E-ISSN 1467-937X,ISSN 0034-6527. DOI 10.2307/2971716.
  17. Kaplan, D. (2010) “Natural disasters and differential household effects: Evidence from the May2006 Java Earthquake”, Unpublished manuscript.
  18. Kimball, M. S. (1990) “Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume”, NBERWorking Paper No. 3403, NBER Program(s):Monetary Economics. DOI 10.3386/w3403.
  19. Loayza, N. V., Olaberria, E., Rigolini, J. and Christiaensen, L. (2012) “Natural disasters and growth:going beyond the averages”, World Development, Vol. 40, No. 7, pp. 1317-1336. ISSN 0305-750X. DOI 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.03.002.
  20. Long, F. (1978) “The impact of natural disasters on Third World agriculture: An exploratorysurvey of the need for some new dimensions in development planning”, AmericanJournal of Economics and Sociology, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 149-163. E-ISSN 1536-7150. DOI 10.1111/j.1536-7150.1978.tb02809.x.
  21. Ludwig, F., Van Scheltinga, C. T., Verhagen, J., Kruijt, B., van Ierland, E., Dellink, R., De Bruin,K., de Bruin, K. and Kabat, P. (2007) “Climate change impacts on Developing Countries-EUAccountability”, European Parliament. [Online]. Available: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/etudes/join/2007/393511/IPOL-ENVI_ET(2007)393511_EN.pdf [Accessed: 12 Jan. 2017].
  22. Markussen, T. (2015) “Land and land markets” in Tarp, F. "Growth, Structural Transformationand Rural Change in Viet Nam: A Rising Dragon on the Move". [Online]. Available: https://www3.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/Events/PDF/VARHS%20Report.pdf [Accessed: 20 Jan. 2017].
  23. Pelling, M., Özerdem, A. and Barakat, S. (2002) “The macro-economic impact of disasters”,Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 283-305. DOI 10.1191/1464993402ps042ra.
  24. Rose, A. (2004) “Defining and measuring economic resilience to disasters”, Disaster Preventionand Management: An International Journal, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 307-314. ISSN 0965-3562. DOI 10.1108/09653560410556528.
  25. Rosenzweig, M. R. and Wolpin, K. I. (1993) “Credit market constraints, consumption smoothing,and the accumulation of durable production assets in low-income countries: Investmentsin bullocks in India”, Journal of political economy, Vol. 101, No. 2, pp. 223-244. E-ISSN 1537-534X,ISSN 0022-3808.
  26. Sawada, Y. (2007) “The impact of natural and manmade disasters on household welfare”, AgriculturalEconomics, Vol. 37, No. 1, pp. 59-73. E-ISSN 1574-0862. DOI 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2007.00235.x.
  27. Sivakumar, M. V. (2005) “Impacts of natural disasters in agriculture, rangeland and forestry:an overview”, in Sivakumar, M. V., Motha, R. P., Das, H. P. (eds) "Natural Disasters and ExtremeEvents in Agriculture", Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. E-ISBN 978-3-540-28307-2, ISBN 978-3-540-22490-7. DOI 10.1007/3-540-28307-2_1.
  28. Toya, H. and Skidmore, M. (2005) “Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters”,Economics Letters, Vol. 94, No. 1, pp. 20-25. ISSN 0165-1765. DOI 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.020.
  29. Te’o, I. J. F. (1997) “The economic impact of natural disaters in the South Pacific”, South PacificDisater Reduction Programme, United Nations Department of Humannitarian Affairs and UnitedNations Department for Development Support and Management Services.
  30. Udry, C. (1994) “Risk and insurance in a rural credit market: An empirical investigation in northernNigeria”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 495-526. E-ISSN 1467-937X,ISSN 0034-6527. DOI 10.2307/2297901.
  31. Yu, B., Zhu, T., Breisinger, C., and Nguyen, H. M. (2010) “Impacts of climate change on agricultureand policy options for adaptation”, No. 1015, IFPRI discussion papers, International Food PolicyResearch Institute (IFPRI). [Online]. Available: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/A06030A0F205087E4925777C001E6988-Full_Report.pdf [Accessed: 20 Jan. 2017].
  32. Weber, S. (2010) “bacon: An effective way to detect outliers in multivariate data using Stata(and Mata)”, Stata Journal, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 331-338. E-ISSN 1536-8634, ISSN 1536-867X.
  33. World Bank (2009) “Climate change and development”, Washington DC.: The World Bank Group,9 p., [Online]. Available: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/185171468331853022/Climate-change-and-development [Accessed: 23 Jan. 2017]
  34. Zeldes, S. P. (1989) “Optimal consumption with stochastic income: Deviationsfrom certainty equivalence”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 104, No. 2, pp. 275-298.E-ISSN 1531-4650, ISSN 0033-5533. DOI 10.2307/2937848.

Full paper

  Full paper (.pdf, 906.56 KB).