Analysis of Some Drivers of Cocoa Export in Nigeria in the Era of Trade Liberalization
No 4/2014, December
Abstract
This contribution analysis some determinants of cocoa export in Nigeria in the era of free trade. Using Johansen cointegration and OLS regression methods, the cointegration results show there exists a long- run equilibrium relationship between cocoa exports and the explanatory variables such as quantity of cocoa production, domestic consumption and the world price in Nigeria. More so, the OLS results provide a positive relationship between cocoa export and world price, trade openness, REER, and quantity of world cocoa export (statistically significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 levels). However, the results show an inverse association between cocoa export and domestic cocoa consumption (statistically significant at 0.01 level). The findings indicate that Nigeria has a comparative advantage in cocoa export. The Nigerian government and partners should create an enabling environment and some incentives to stimulate cocoa producers and traders by subsidizing farm inputs, and providing affordable loans to them to ensure sustainable cocoa production and export in the country.
Keywords
Cocoa export, cointegration, trade liberalization, world price.