Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics

Faculty of Economics and Management CULS Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Praha - Suchdol

The international peer-reviewed scientific journal, ISSN 1804-1930

Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria

Olushina Olawale Awe, Damola M. Akinlana, Ola Oluwa Simon Yaya, Opeyemi Aromolaran

DOI: 10.7160/aol.2018.100202

Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, No 2 /2018, June

pp. 15-22

Awe, O. O., Akinlana, D. M., Yaya, O. S. and Aromolaran, O. (2018) “Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 15-22. ISSN 1804-1930.DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100202.


This study examines the time series properties of co-integration and causal relationship between oil (non-agricultural) and non-oil (agricultural) import and export in Africa’s largest economy. We employed Granger causality and Johansen and Juselius’s co-integration methods to investigate causal relationships among the variables Naira-US dollars exchange rate (USD), Naira-Pounds exchange rates (GBP), Oil Import (OI), Non-Oil import (NO), Oil Export (OE) and Non-Oil export (NE). We found empirical evidence for co-integration between oil and non-oil import. Our result reveals the existence of long run equilibrium between exchange rates, oil import and export, and non-oil import (agriculture) and export. Non-oil import and export involves those of agricultural products like Cocoa, Timber, Cassava and Groundnut. We show that there is bidirectional Granger causality from import and export of both agricultural (non-oil) and non-agricultural (oil) goods and vice-versa. This empirical relationship followed closely to what economic theory have suggested. The study recommends amongst others, that government should adopt appropriate monetary and fiscal policies that will ensure realistic and stable exchange rates and foster economic growth through import and export of agricultural products.


Causality, import, export, Nigeria, exchange rate.


  1. Alaoui, A. E. (2015) "Causality and Cointegration Between Export, Import and Economic Growth: Evidence from Morocco", Journal of World Economic Research, Vol. 4, No. 3. pp. 83-91. E-ISSN 2328-7748, 2328-773X. DOI 10.11648/j.jwer.20150403.14.
  2. Awe, O. O. (2012) "On Pairwise Granger Causality Modelling and Econometric Analysis of SelectedEconomic Indicators", Interstat Jounal (U.S.A), Vol.17, No. 5., pp. 1-16.
  3. Awe, O. O., Akinlana, D. M. and Adesunkanmi, S. O. (2016) "Foreign Trade-Foreign ExchangeNexus in Nigeria: A Vector Error Correction Modelling Approach", Binus Business Review, Vol. 7.,No.1, pp. 1-7. ISSN 2476-9050. DOI 10.21512/bbr.v7i1.1427.
  4. Ayinde, O. E., Ilori, T. E., Ayinde, K. and Babatunde, R. O., (2015) "Analysis of the behaviourof prices of major staple foods in West Africa: A case study of Nigeria", Agris on-line Papersin Economics and Informatics, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 3-17. ISSN 1804-1930.
  5. CBN (2010) "Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin". [Online]. Available:[Accessed: 15 Aug. 2017].
  6. Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive TimeSeries with a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74., No. 366,pp. 427-431. E-ISSN 1537-274X, ISSN 0162-1459. DOI 10.2307/2286348.
  7. Eke, I. C., Eke, F. A. and Obafemi, N. O., (2015) "Exchange Rate Behaviour and Trade Balancesin Nigeria: An empirical investigation", International Journal of Humanities and Social Science,Vol. 5 No.8(1), pp. 71-78. E-ISSN 2221-0989, ISSN 2220-8488.
  8. Emokaro, C. O. and Ayantoyinbo, A. A. (2014) "Analysis of Market Integration and Price Variationin Rice Marketing in Osun State, Nigeria", American Journal of Experimental Agriculture, Vol. 4,No. 5. DOI 10.9734/AJEA/2014/7639.
  9. Engle, R. F., and Granger, C. W. J. (1987) "Co-integration and Error-Correction Representation,Estimation and Testing", Econometrica, Vol. 55, pp. 251-276. E-ISSN 1468-0262. DOI 10.2307/1913236.
  10. Granger, C. and Newbold, P. (1974) "Spurious Regression in Econometrics", Journal of Econometrics,Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 111-120. ISSN 0304-4076. DOI 10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7.
  11. Granger, C. W. J. (1969) "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross SpectralMethods", Econometrica, Vol. 37. pp. 424-35. E-ISSN 1468-0262. DOI 10.2307/1912791.
  12. Granger, C. W. J. (1988) "Testing for causality-A personal viewpoint", Journal of Economic Dynamicand Control, Vol. 2., No. 4, pp. 329-352. ISSN 0165-1889. DOI 10.1016/0165-1889(80)90069-X.
  13. Hloušková, Z., Ženíšková, P. and Prášilová, M. (2018) "Comparison of Agricultural Costs PredictionApproaches", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 3-13.ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100101.
  14. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1991) "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inferenceon Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economicsand Statistics, Vol.52. No.2, pp. 169-210. ISSN 0305-9049. DOI 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x.
  15. Kharin, S. (2018) "Price Transmission Analysis: The case of milk products in Russia", AGRISon-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 15-23. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100102.
  16. Nelson, C. R and Plosser, C. I. (1982) "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series:Some evidence and implications", Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, No.2, pp. 139-162.ISSN 0304-3932. DOI 10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5.
  17. Syed, W. S., Muhammed, A. and Rana, M. A. (2015) "Agricultural export and economic growth:A case study of Pakistan", MPRA, Vol. 5, No. 8. ISSN 2225-0972.
  18. Uduakobong, S. I. and Williams, A. O. (2017) "Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Oil Importsin Nigeria: A Cointegration Analysis", Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, Vol. 4,No. 16, pp. 165-176. ISSN 2055-0286. DOI 10.14738/assrj.416.3508.

Full paper

icon of PDF documents Full paper (.pdf, 658.80 KB).

ISSN 1804-1930
© Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, 2009 - 2018
Faculty of Economics and Management CULS Prague, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Praha 6 - Suchdol