Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics

Faculty of Economics and Management CULS Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Praha - Suchdol

The international peer-reviewed scientific journal, ISSN 1804-1930


Comparison of Agricultural Costs Prediction Approaches

Zuzana Hloušková, Petra Ženíšková, Marie Prášilová

DOI: 10.7160/aol.2018.100101

Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, No 1 /2018, March

pp. 3-13

Hloušková, Z., Ženíšková, P. and Prášilová, M. (2018) “Comparison of Agricultural Costs Prediction Approaches", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 3-13. ISSN 1804-1930.DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100101.

Abstract

The paper submitted offers an assessment and comparison of three approaches to agricultural cost inputs short-term forecasting, that have been proposed as possible alternatives to tackle the problem. The data applied have been taken from the Czech Statistical Office and the Farm Accountancy Data Network data sources. The forecasts were prepared using time series analyses based on methods of exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins methodology of autoregressive integrated process moving averages. The proposed change index numbers for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 years from three approaches were confronted with the real development of costs time series as it was found in the statistical FADN survey results. The main conclusion drawn pointed out that, for the purpose of economic income estimation based on the FADN database, the cost prediction approach based on the same database, i.e., on time series analysis of the FADN panel data, is the most applicable one. However, it is recommended, too, to use other approaches for crops protection products cost and labour cost development.

Keywords

Time series analysis, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models, cost inputs in agriculture, Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN).

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