No 2/2018, June
Relevance of Declining Agriculture in Economic Development of South Asian Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Role of agriculture has been a matter of debate among development economist. Agriculture has been a major contributor in national income and employment in South Asian economies but its share in the national GDP has been declining over time. This study examines the relevance of declining agriculture due to structural transformation in economic growth of four South Asian countries namely India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. To analyze the long-run relationship between agriculture and economic growth, an empirical model based on Augmented Neoclassical Solow-Swan model is developed. Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood technique based on VAR model and Granger causality test has been employed to analyze long run and short run causal relations between agriculture and economic growth respectively. Results show that in all four South Asian countries, agriculture has long-run association with economic growth and it is an important driver of economic growth. Short-run analysis indicates that agriculture stimulates economic growth in all South Asian countries except Bangladesh. Neglect of agriculture and excessive focus on industrialization may retard growth both in short and long run.
Agriculture, economic growth, South Asia.
Ansari, S. A. and Khan, W. (2018) “Relevance of Declining Agriculture in Economic Development of South Asian Countries: An Empirical Analysis", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 3-14. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100201.
Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria
This study examines the time series properties of co-integration and causal relationship between oil (non-agricultural) and non-oil (agricultural) import and export in Africa’s largest economy. We employed Granger causality and Johansen and Juselius’s co-integration methods to investigate causal relationships among the variables Naira-US dollars exchange rate (USD), Naira-Pounds exchange rates (GBP), Oil Import (OI), Non-Oil import (NO), Oil Export (OE) and Non-Oil export (NE). We found empirical evidence for co-integration between oil and non-oil import. Our result reveals the existence of long run equilibrium between exchange rates, oil import and export, and non-oil import (agriculture) and export. Non-oil import and export involves those of agricultural products like Cocoa, Timber, Cassava and Groundnut. We show that there is bidirectional Granger causality from import and export of both agricultural (non-oil) and non-agricultural (oil) goods and vice-versa. This empirical relationship followed closely to what economic theory have suggested. The study recommends amongst others, that government should adopt appropriate monetary and fiscal policies that will ensure realistic and stable exchange rates and foster economic growth through import and export of agricultural products.
Causality, import, export, Nigeria, exchange rate.
Awe, O. O., Akinlana, D. M., Yaya, O. S. and Aromolaran, O. (2018) “Time Series Analysis of the Behaviour of Import and Export of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Goods in West Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 15-22. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100202.
Is the Halloween Effect Present on the Markets for Agricultural Commodities?
Seasonal anomalies play an important role in the global economic system. One of the most frequently empirically observed anomalies is the Halloween effect. Halloween effect describes the anomaly on the financial markets, which is that the returns of different assets in the summer period are generally lower than the returns in the winter period. This study tests the Halloween effect on the agricultural commodities’ markets over the period from 1980 to 2016. The sample includes price series of 27 major agricultural commodities. The data show that 20 out of the 27 commodities recorded a higher average winter period than summer period returns and in 15 cases, the differences are statistically significant. The data also show that out of the 7 commodities with higher summer period returns (the “reverse Halloween effect”) only in cases of poultry and tea the differences are of statistically significant nature.
Halloween effect, financial market, agriculture, commodity, seasonal anomaly.
Burakov, D. and Freidin, M. (2018) “Is the Halloween Effect Present on the Markets for Agricultural Commodities?", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 23-32. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100203.
Endogenous and Exogenous Determinants of Agricultural Productivity: What Is the Most Relevant for the Competitiveness of the Italian Agricultural Systems?
Several factors are deemed to influence farms’ economic performance and competitiveness: endogenous characteristics, such as farm structure and entrepreneur’s features, as well exogenous factors related to the infrastructure endowment, networks and immaterial factors. A deeper knowledge of the role each factor plays in different geographical areas can help to better address the rural policies and to improve their efficacy. In this respect, the present study aims at analyzing how factors that potentially affect competitiveness differ within Italian agriculture and the way those factors act on the economic performance of agriculture at provincial level. The analysis was carried out in two steps. First, in order to define the main characteristics of the Italian agricultural systems a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been carried out using data collected by the last Italian Agricultural Census, carried out in 2010, at provincial level and component scores have been used to characterize provincial agricultural systems. In a second step, PCA results were used as explanatory variables in regression models to evaluate their relationship with agricultural productivity and performance indicators at provincial level. The work highlighted two main results. First, agricultural differentiation factors identified in the PCA discriminate two main territorial agricultural models linked to different agricultural systems organization and development strategies. Secondly, the determinants of agricultural productivity and performance are mainly endogenous to the sector and only few context indicators seem to act as explanatory variables.
Italian agricultural systems; competitiveness, NUTS3; rural development policy.
Coppola, A., Ianuario, S., Chinnici, G., Di Vita, G., Pappalardo, G. and D'Amico, D. (2018) “Endogenous and Exogenous Determinants of Agricultural Productivity: What Is the Most Relevant for the Competitiveness of the Italian Agricultural Systems?", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 33-47. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100204.
Information Systems in Agricultural Enterprises: An Empirical Study in Slovak Republic
The development of information and communication technologies (ICT) is currently conditioned by the development of industry, society and many other factors. The ever increasing trend of ICT development is directly connected with the agricultural enterprises. ICT play important roles in the development of these enterprises and automation of their processes. Revitalisation of financing and budgets, dynamically evolving strong competitive environment and growing regulation lead to ever growing need for swift reactions and making precise decisions in all institutions and organisations, including manufacturing and agricultural organisations. Access to the right information in the right time is crucial for every subject. There are several fundamental areas for modern agricultural enterprises. All processes carried out in agricultural enterprises need to be planned and managed; automation of the processes via suitable information systems brings significant competitive advantages and strengthened market positions. Enterprise resource planning systems are convenient in this respect. The systems represent efficient instruments for planning and management of all crucial internal processes, particularly at the tactical and operational levels of management. The paper provides a picture of the current state of business information systems’ application in agricultural enterprises in Slovak republic and analyses the influence of selected factors (benefits and functions of the information system) on the satisfaction of managers with the implemented information system.
Information systems, information and communication technologies, management, benefits, agricultural enterprises.
Látečková, A., Bolek, V. and Szabo, Ľ. (2018) “Information Systems in Agricultural Enterprises: An Empirical Study in Slovak Republic", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 49-60. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100205.
Estimating Spatial Effects of Transport Infrastructure on Agricultural Output of Iran
This paper examines the possibility of spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure in Iran provinces. We estimate the regional spillovers of the transport infrastructure stock by applying a spatial Durbin model from 1980-2015. The results indicate that positive spillover effect exist due to the connectivity characteristic of transport infrastructure at the national level. A spatial Durbin model that obtains spatial dependence in a given province has a positive direct effects on agricultural output. Also, at the national level, the spillover effect of road infrastructure on elasticity of output in neighboring provinces varies with respect to the spatial weight matrix used in the spatial Durbin model. Moreover, our analysis shows that enhancement in road infrastructure in the provinces, south region shows a larger positive spillover effect on agricultural output when compared to central or west provinces. At the regional level, transport infrastructure spillover effects change significantly all the time among Iran’s five macro-regions.
Spatial Durbin model, agricultural production, spillover effect, transport infrastructure.
Najkar, N., Kohansal, M. R. and Ghorbani, M. (2018) “Estimating Spatial Effects of Transport Infrastructure on Agricultural Output of Iran", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 61-71. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100206.
Geoinformatics and Crowdsourcing in Cultural Heritage: A Tool for Managing Historical Archives
Archives of historical photographs have a great potential for "geo- or spatial sciences", for they can provide highly relevant visual data on historical landscapes, populated places and settlement structures, including those now destroyed. Processing of these archives represents many challenges, among them the application of geoinformatic concepts and information technologies. The article presents the example of geo-referencing, crowdsourcing, and other computer-based technologies applied to the archival photographs of today-destroyed sites on the Czech – Bavarian border, where many villages, farm sites and monuments were destroyed in the 1950s or abandoned as a consequence of post-WWII development. In the situation of dramatically changing landscape and land use, historical photographs are an important source of documentation for both research and virtual reconstruction of disappeared places, landscape, and society.
Geo-referencing, historical photographs, crowdsourcing, landscape reconstruction, cultural heritage, image analysis, digital humanities, digital archive, IT methods in cultural heritage, 3D reconstruction, destroyed cultural heritage.
Paclíková, K., Weinfurtner, A., Vohnoutová, M., Dorner, W., Fesl, J., Preus, M., Dostálek, L. and Horníčková, K. (2018) “Geoinformatics and Crowdsourcing in Cultural Heritage: A Tool for Managing Historical Archives", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 73-83. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100207.
Enriched Data Sharing Methodology
The aim of this article is to propose a methodology for improving the sharing of data between applications that support scientific activity, which are focused on agriculture, aquaculture, rural development, etc. The presented methodological approach is referred to as Enriched Data Sharing Methodology (EDSM). The presented methodology is based on two analyzes. The analysis of the data formats used for the metadata description of digital objects and the description of their mutual relations. And analysis of dictionaries of controlled descriptors.
The article presents part of the results of author ’s dissertation thesis.
Metadata, application profile, social network service for scientists, data sharing, enriched data.
Stočes, M., Kánská, E., Šimek, P. and Vaněk, J. (2018) “Enriched Data Sharing Methodology", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 85-92. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100208.
Rural Households Livelihood Strategies and its Impact on Livelihood Outcomes: The Case of Eastern Oromia, Ethiopia
This study analyzed the factors affecting smallholder farmers decisions to adopt livelihood strategy choices and its impact on rural households’ livelihood outcomes in the Meta district, Eastern Ethiopia during the 2016/17 production year. The data used for the study were obtained from 180 randomly selected sample households. Multinomial logit model was employed to analyze the determinants of farmers’ decisions to adopt livelihood strategies. The average effect of adoption on households’ farm incomes was estimated by using propensity score matching method. The result of the multinomial logistic regression showed that age of the household head, distance from irrigation sources, social status, soil fertility status, education level, distance from Developmental Agents (DAs) office, economical active members, soil fertility status, soil conservation and transportation services were significantly affects households’ adoption decision. Impact evaluation results showed that about 12.9, 45.2 and 41.9 percents of the sample households who using crop farming only, crop + livestock farming, and crop + livestock + off/non-farming strategies were non poor, respectively. Similarly, about 9.4, 30 and 19.4 percents of the sample households who using crop farming only, crop + livestock farming and crop + livestock + off/non-farming strategies were food secured, in that order. The estimation results provides a supportive evidence of statistically significant effect of livelihood strategies on rural households livelihood outcomes measured by food security status and poverty status. Therefore, policy makers should give due emphasis to the aforementioned variables to reduce households level food insecurity status and improve the livelihood of rural households.
Households, livelihood strategies, outcomes and multinomial logit model.
Yuya, B. A. and Daba, N. A. (2018) “Rural Households Livelihood Strategies and its Impact on Livelihood Outcomes: The Case of Eastern Oromia, Ethiopia", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 93-103. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100209.