No 1/2018, March
Comparison of Agricultural Costs Prediction Approaches
The paper submitted offers an assessment and comparison of three approaches to agricultural cost inputs short-term forecasting, that have been proposed as possible alternatives to tackle the problem. The data applied have been taken from the Czech Statistical Office and the Farm Accountancy Data Network data sources. The forecasts were prepared using time series analyses based on methods of exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins methodology of autoregressive integrated process moving averages. The proposed change index numbers for the 2012, 2013 and 2014 years from three approaches were confronted with the real development of costs time series as it was found in the statistical FADN survey results. The main conclusion drawn pointed out that, for the purpose of economic income estimation based on the FADN database, the cost prediction approach based on the same database, i.e., on time series analysis of the FADN panel data, is the most applicable one. However, it is recommended, too, to use other approaches for crops protection products cost and labour cost development.
Time series analysis, exponential smoothing, ARIMA models, cost inputs in agriculture, Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN).
Hloušková, Z., Ženíšková, P. and Prášilová, M. (2018) “Comparison of Agricultural Costs Prediction Approaches", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 3-13. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100101.
Price Transmission Analysis: the Case of Milk Products in Russia
This paper investigates vertical price transmission along the milk supply chain in the Russian market using a vector autoregression model. Monthly farm-gate and retail prices were used in the analysis. Using cointegration technique, we find no empirical evidence for cointegration between farm-gate and retail prices. We show that there is bidirectional Granger causality from farm to retail prices and vice versa. However, response of the farm-gate price to a change in retail price is greater and slightly longer than price response of the retail price to a change at the farm level. The results support the assumption that price changes are not transmitted efficiently from one level to another.
Vertical price transmission, market power, cointegration, vector autoregression model, dairy prices, Russia.
Kharin, S. (2018) “Price Transmission Analysis: the Case of Milk Products in Russia", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 15-23. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100102.
System Macromodel of Agricultural Building with Aim to Energy Consumption Minimization
Economizing on energy intended for heating of agricultural buildings is correlative with their convenient construction from the viewpoint of both thermal and mechanical properties. Therefore, knowledge of temperature time characteristics enables building construction optimizing. This paper deals with process of recognizing elements and parameters of some particular building object, assembling its system macromodel, and analysing temperature time characteristics on its base using appropriate mathematic tools (Laplace and Fourier transformation, matrix characterizing of model parameters) and special software (ANATH). Finally, the resulting temperature time characteristics can be used for an optimal design of some planned agricultural object or for reconstruction of some existing one.
Economy of agricultural engineering, heating energy economy, system analysis, temperature time characteristics, expenses optimizing, ambient temperature well-being.
Malinovský, V. (2018) “System Macromodel of Agricultural Building with Aim to Energy Consumption Minimization", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 25-35. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100103.
Effects of Natural Disaster on Rice Production at Farm Level: New Evidence from Vietnam
The current study uses a unique balanced panel of 3,922 households between 2008 and 2010 to examine the extent to which rice production in Vietnam is affected by natural disasters and how coping strategies lessen the negative effects of natural disaster, using a fixed effects model that controls for time invariant farm heterogeneity. With regard to natural disaster, we find evidence of the negative inter-temporal occurrence and negative inter-temporal severity effects, and the negative current occurrence one as well. With regard to coping strategies, we find various evidence of current, inter-temporal coping-occurrence and coping-severity effects, depending on kinds of coping strategies.
Current and inter-temporal occurrence effects, current and inter-temporal severity effects, current and intertemporal coping-occurrence effects, current and inter-temporal coping-severity effects, natural disaster, rice production, Vietnam.
Nguyen, H.-R., Ngo, Q.-T. and Nguyen, N.-D. (2018) “Effects of Natural Disaster on Rice Production at Farm Level: New Evidence from Vietnam", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 37-49. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100104.
Automated Wildlife Recognition
The estimation of wildlife populations is an issue currently being solved at workplaces on many levels. Knowledge of wildlife population and localization is not only very important for reducing damage to agricultural and forest growth, which arises from the local overgrowth of certain animal species, but also for the protection of endangered species of animals and plants.
The article presents the results of a research carried out during 2017 as the first partial objective of a complex automated wildlife estimation project, namely the recognition of game in a free landscape without vegetation cover from an UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle). The paper describes a method of finding game animals in a selected area and identifies problems with the recognition of the animals hiding in the vegetation. These results play an important role in solving the overall complex p roblem of automated game recognition.
Wildlife, automated recognition, picture segmentation, neural networks, mimicry, false positive recognition.
Pavlíček, J., Jarolímek, J., Jarolímek, J., Pavlíčková, P., Dvořák, S., Pavlík, J. and Hanzlík, P. (2018) “Automated Wildlife Recognition", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 51-60. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100105.
Impact of Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Meat Processing Companies
The paper deals with the technical efficiency analysis of meat processors in the Czech Republic and evaluates an impact of subsidies on companies’ technical efficiency. Albertina database which collects accounting data of the Czech meat processors was used for the empirical analysis for the programming period 2007-2013. Subsidies data was collected from the public register of recipients of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. In total, 207 meat processors were analysed. The methodological approach taken in this study is based on translogarithmic production function and Stochastic Frontier Analysis. True Random Effects model, and Battese and Coelli model were used to evaluate the impact of subsidies on technical efficiency. The results of both used methods indicate positive impact of subsidies on meat processors technical efficiency. Material input displays the highest elasticity; the lowest elasticity belongs to production factor Capital. Technical change has a positive impact on production.
Stochastic Frontier Analysis, technical efficiency, meat processors, subsidies, investments.
Rudinskaya, T. and Náglová, Z. (2018) “Impact of Subsidies on Technical Efficiency of Meat Processing Companies", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 61-70. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100106.
Polish Sugar Industry Development
Poland, and its sugar market, represents very specific phenomenon among countries producing primarily sugar from sugar beet. Polish sugar production is relatively high in comparison to other European countries and have not negligible export potential. Main aim of presented contribution is to identify main trends and important specifics connected to sugar industry development between years 2000 and 2017. From the analyses of Polish sugar industry and sugar market following findings could be concluded. Production of sugar beet is constantly developing toward more intensive production; mainly yield, sugar content and average cultivated area per one grower increased significantly, but still Polish producers belongs among the smallest in the whole EU. Production is also subsidised by coupled national payment of 380 EUR/ha. Polish market underwent significant restructuring that on one side resulted in significant reduction of amount of sugar refineries and sugar beet producers. On the other hand, it resulted in considerable concentration of production capacities among subjects that successfully passed the transformation phase. Despite reduction of sugar refineries from original 76 to 18, sugar beet production remained almost unchanged at the level of 12 million tonnes. Also raw sugar production remained almost unchanged and during the period oscillated around the level of 2 million tonnes. On contrary production of white sugar increased significantly from 1.54 million tonnes in 2001 to 2.1 million tonnes in 2016. Reduction of sugar refineries was in this perspective compensated by the modernisation of production facilities and increase of their processing capacities. Between 2001 and 2016 length of sugar campaign increased from average 51 days to about 112 days. The average processing capacity of one sugar refinery grew by tens of percent. At present all production capacities are controlled by only four actors (Krajowa Spolka Cukrowa S.A., Nordzucker Polska S.A., Pfeifer&Langen, Südzucker Polska S.A.). The market evince strong characteristics of oligopoly with domination of 3 subjects, state-owned Krajowa Spolka Cukrowa S.A.; Südzucker Polska S.A and Pfeifer&Langen, both owned by German capital. Polish sugar export was not harmed significantly during transformation period. Recently it oscillates around 0.5 million tonnes annually. Increasing unit price per kilogram of exported sugar is considered as positive and important factor that pushed total value of exports to approximately 240 million EUR. Extreme territorial concentration is seen as a weak point of Polish sugar foreign trade. Top 10 countries participate on Polish exports and imports with sugar approximately by 72.56% and 92.94% respectively (2016).
Poland, sugar, production, trade, sugar beet, price, export, import, production capacities, producers, competitiveness, concertation.
Smutka, L., Pawlak, K., Kotyza, K. and Svatoš, M. (2018) “Polish Sugar Industry Development", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 71-90. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100107.
Dynamic Effects of Public Investment Support in the Food and Beverage Industries
Impact evaluation of public investment is essential for policy makers to evaluate the effectiveness of public resource allocation and for company management from various industries to determine whether to participate in grant programmes. This article aims to use statistical and econometrical methods (such as propensity score matching, average treatment effect on treated, difference-in-difference approach and pooled regression with time lags) to evaluate the impacts of investment support from the Rural Development Programme, national sources and the Operational Programme Enterprise and Innovation on selected key economic indicators. This representative case study of 412 companies from the Czech food and beverage industry during the period from 2007-2015 noted some interesting findings, many of which go against previous findings. The food and beverage industry is an important beneficiary of public investment subsidies. Investment support increases investment activity and the size of supported companies. This investment support could lead to a crowdingout effect, which has been revealed in recent studies. Simultaneously, investment support changes the capital structure of participants towards higher use of bank loans and positively affects long-term profitability. However, there were not any significant, positive effects on the intensity of the use of fixed assets and labour productivity, which has been a key impact indicator for programme evaluations. However, research revealed positive dynamic effects of investment support on improving resource efficiency.
Treatment effects, impact evaluation, lagged effects, food and beverage industry.
Špička, J. (2018) “Dynamic Effects of Public Investment Support in the Food and Beverage Industries", AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 91-110. ISSN 1804-1930. DOI 10.7160/aol.2018.100108.